I would argue that there are going to be plenty of opportunities. And part of the reason there are going to be plenty of opportunities, the tech doesn’t make any difference for any of that. New things coming along don’t take away the opportunities.

我認(rèn)為市場上還是有很多機(jī)會，因為技術(shù)變革并不會帶來任何改變，新事物的出現(xiàn)并不會剝奪投資機(jī)會。

What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. Well, the 58 years we’ve been running Berkshire, I would say there’s been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things. The reason they do it to some extent is because they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started.

人們干了傻事就會創(chuàng)造投資機(jī)會。在我們經(jīng)營伯克希爾的58年里，干傻事的人越來越多了。他們這么做的原因是，在某種程度上，他們能比我們創(chuàng)業(yè)時更容易從別人那里拿到錢。

So, you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last ten years, and you could become rich if you were adroit at it, whether the business succeeded or not, and the underwriters got paid, and the lawyers got paid. And if that’s done on a large scale — which it couldn’t be done 58 years ago.

所以，在過去10年里，你可以創(chuàng)辦10家或者15家愚蠢的保險公司，只要你精于此道，無論業(yè)務(wù)成功與否，承保人都能拿到錢，律師也能拿到錢，你就會成為富翁。這在58年前是做不到的。

You couldn’t get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do, fortunately. And so, I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic market that anybody can play in, but that the big money is in selling other people ideas.

幸運的是，你沒有錢去做一些我們想做的蠢事。因此，我認(rèn)為投資已經(jīng)從這個任何人都可以參與的巨大資本主義市場中消失了，而賺大錢的是向別人兜售創(chuàng)意。

And I think if you’re running small amounts of money,  the opportunities will be greater. But then Charlie and I always differed on this subject. He likes to tell me how gloomy the world is, and I like to tell him, “We’ll find something.” And so far, we’ve both be kind of right.

我認(rèn)為，如果你投入的是小額資金，機(jī)會就會更多。但在這個問題上，查理和我總是意見不一。他喜歡告訴我這個世界有多灰暗，而我喜歡告訴他 "我們會找到機(jī)會的"。到目前為止，我們都是對的。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自2022年巴菲特答股東問

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報

本視頻由七華軟件用人工智能技術(shù)生成