最近幾周發(fā)布的穩(wěn)健數(shù)據(jù)提振了市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇的信心。三月進(jìn)口額同比增長(zhǎng)38.1%，為四年來(lái)最高漲幅，表明國(guó)內(nèi)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)盛，不過(guò)也反映商品價(jià)格較高。同時(shí)，零售額同比增長(zhǎng)34.2%，超出預(yù)期，緩解了市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不平衡（主要由出口和投資主導(dǎo)）的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù) (CPI) 保持低位，同比增長(zhǎng)0.4%；生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù) (PPI) 突增4.4%，超出共識(shí)水平，反映出價(jià)格壓力不斷上升，且部分壓力可能轉(zhuǎn)嫁至消費(fèi)者。

第一季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)喜憂(yōu)參半。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)季度環(huán)比增速0.6%。同比增速18.3%創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，反映出去年基數(shù)非常薄弱。但是，在一定程度上，這種疲軟也反映了中國(guó)在去年早期為遏制新冠疫情而付出的努力以及今年春節(jié)期間的“就地過(guò)年”政策。整體上，制造業(yè)仍然是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的動(dòng)力。

但是，中國(guó)政府為今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速設(shè)定了6%左右的保守目標(biāo)，且承諾保持信貸增速與名義GDP增速一致。由于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已挽回新冠疫情相關(guān)損失，預(yù)計(jì)增速會(huì)向趨勢(shì)水平回落。服務(wù)業(yè)的基數(shù)效應(yīng)仍將在較長(zhǎng)期限內(nèi)維持有利態(tài)勢(shì)，但是整體共識(shí)包括借貸增速降低，以及出口、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、固定資產(chǎn)投資（和商品生產(chǎn)）更加低迷。

地緣政治仍是人民幣的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本周，美元/離岸人民幣匯率跌破6.50，降至三月中旬的水平。但是，由于人民幣相對(duì)歐元和日元走弱，人民幣匯率指數(shù)為96.4，稍低于近期高點(diǎn)。鑒于持續(xù)（盡管收窄）的經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)盈余、有利的收益率支持和債券市場(chǎng)流入同時(shí)推動(dòng)人民幣走高，我們繼續(xù)將基本面看做支持離岸人民幣進(jìn)一步升值的動(dòng)力。

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